The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has decided to withdraw its personnel from Yemen following Saudi Arabia's air strikes on what it claims were shipments of weapons and military vehicles destined for a separatist group. The UAE's Ministry of Defence announced that it would be pulling out its remaining "counter-terrorism teams" stationed in southern Yemen, responding to a 24-hour ultimatum issued by Saudi Arabia demanding the UAE cease its support—both financial and material—to any factions within the country.
This development is alarming because it signals rising tensions between two nations that are typically seen as allies in the volatile Gulf region. The situation raises concerns about potential instability in southeastern Yemen, a region that had been relatively safe throughout the ongoing civil conflict.
The backdrop to this escalation includes Saudi Arabia releasing drone footage purportedly showing vehicles being unloaded at Mukalla Port in Yemen. The Saudi government alleges these vehicles were part of a shipment from the UAE intended for the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a group that has been actively conducting military operations along Saudi Arabia's extensive border with Yemen. In response, the Saudi-led military coalition targeted these vehicles and weapons, marking the latest in a series of attacks against the STC in just the past week.
Coalition spokesman Major General Turki Al-Malki criticized these actions as blatant violations of peace efforts and stated that they contravene UN Security Council Resolution 2216, adopted in 2015, which aims to restore order in Yemen. This strong condemnation from Saudi Arabia indicates a serious escalation in rhetoric and actions between these two Gulf powers.
Elisabeth Kendall, an expert in Yemen and the President of Girton College at Cambridge University, expressed her concerns, saying, "We are witnessing something unprecedented here. The risk of open conflict between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two major regional players, is now more real than ever, particularly in the context of Yemen."
Historically, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE intervened in Yemen’s civil war back in 2015, aligning themselves against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the north. However, their interests have diverged significantly since then. While Saudi Arabia advocates for a unified Yemen, the UAE has thrown its support behind the separatist STC, which seeks to establish an independent state in the southern part of the country.
This growing rivalry has been magnified by the UAE's increasing military presence and influence in southern Yemen, prompting Saudi Arabia to retaliate by targeting STC positions in the eastern provinces. Dr. Kendall noted that while there have been confrontations in the past, such as those in 2019, the current clash represents a much more serious rift regarding the future of southern Yemen.
Adding to the complexity, the recent decision by Israel to recognize Somaliland, located just across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen, may have intensified Saudi concerns about being strategically encircled. Dr. Kendall pointed out that if the UAE consolidates its hold over the extensive coastline of southern Yemen through its relationship with the STC, it could significantly alter the balance of power in this strategically vital area.
In response to the accusations from Saudi Arabia, the UAE firmly denied any involvement in supplying arms or vehicles to separatists, asserting that all actions were coordinated with its coalition partners. The Emirati government categorically rejected any claims suggesting that it was instigating tensions among Yemeni factions or pushing them towards military action that could threaten Saudi borders.
Concerns are mounting over the humanitarian implications of renewed conflict in Yemen. Maysaa Shuja al Deen, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies, warned that a new conflict could severely impact civilians. She noted that regions like Hadramawt and Al Mahara had previously been safe havens but are now under threat as violence escalates.
During the recent Gaza War, the international spotlight turned to Yemen when the Houthi rebels attacked shipping routes in the Red Sea and targeted Israel, ostensibly in support of the Palestinian cause. Despite the world’s focus shifting during that time, the ongoing crisis in Yemen has been largely overlooked, even though it continues to wreak havoc on the lives of countless civilians.
Shuja al Deen expressed her fears that the evolving situation could further complicate an already protracted conflict. She remarked that before this latest escalation, efforts were underway for a fragile agreement aimed at de-escalation with the Houthis. With the current developments, however, it feels as if Yemen has reverted to its chaotic state from 2015, leaving a weary populace that has endured nearly a decade of intense warfare.
